What counts is the stock’s future performance (and the future performance of alternative investments.). What is my confidence level that I actually understand this? With the availability bias, we prefer the wrong information to no information. Is some sort of authority figure exerting an influence on me? What would be the ideal sample? Where are the negative results? “I lost so much money with this stock, I can’t sell it now,” they say. What are the limitations of this evidence? And take advantage of positive Black Swans? Does this person (or do I) truly understand this situation? Am I falsely relying on probabilities just to avoid ambiguity? There are two types of knowledge. Have I gathered a number of sufficiently different perspectives to see how experts with different tools would solve this? Am I attributing undue weight to this factor because of its prominence? We seldom forget uncompleted tasks; they persist in our consciousness and do not let up, tugging at us like little children, until we give them our attention. The introduction of “now” causes us to make inconsistent decisions. Subscribe to my newsletter to get one email a week with new book notes, blog posts, and favorite articles. Can I find disconfirming evidence for my current hypothesis? What is being said here? When people do something for well-meaning, non-monetary reasons, payments throw a wrench into the works. Who can I get an opinion from who has a different expertise and experience than me? Would I make this same decision from a different position, if the status quo was different? Well worth the read, and will likely require revisiting when making decisions. Well worth the read, and will likely require revisiting when making decisions. The belief that reflection leads to truth or accuracy is called the introspection illusion. We can understand linear growth intuitively. Thank you! Or am I in fact extrapolating too far from a small sample? Information bias: the delusion that more information guarantees better decisions. In psychologists’ jargon, this technique is called framing. Is it actually useful? The Art of Thinking Clearly Summary October 9, 2019 November 18, 2020 Luke Rowley Happiness , Mental Health , Mindfulness , Psychology , Self Improvement 1-Sentence-Summary: The Art of Thinking Clearly is a full compendium of the psychological biases that once helped us survive but now only hinder us from living our best life. What is the next best alternative to this option? What evidence would I have to see to make a judgement about whether this situation is improving? She will never sit down on a hot-stove lid again—and that is well; but also she will never sit down on a cold one anymore. Does the average mean anything in this situation? Whoever hunted two mammoths instead of one could eat for twice as long. Or is it outside my circle of competence? It is at the core of cooperation between people and a necessary ingredient for economic growth and wealth creation. What is the worst-case scenario? Because we are so confident of our beliefs, we experience three reactions when someone fails to share our view: (1) Assumption of ignorance, (2) Assumption of idiocy, and (3) Assumption of malice. How can I reduce the number of choices here? Clear thoughts become clear statements, whereas ambiguous ideas transform into vacant ramblings. Our ancestors’ experiences were mostly of the linear variety. The fear of losing something motivates people more than the prospect of gaining of equal value. Never cross a river that is âon averageâ four feet deep. How do we know that one causes the other? What features or factors am I missing here? Likewise, errors are not randomly distributed. Am I trying to shape this into a story? Am I well-rested and well-fed? Our brain is not built to recognize the truth; instead, its goal is to leave behind as many offspring as possible. When it is exceeded, a surfeit of choices destroys the quality of life. Counter by spending time with people who think differently than you do. So rather than tearing your hair out about a wrong decision, or applauding yourself for one that may have only coincidentally led to success, remember why you chose what you did. Are they crowding other incentives for the people involved here? Am I making an impulsive decision right now? Is that affecting my decision-making process? Am I falsely attributing this to a single cause? ", We cannot know what makes us successful or happy. Depending on how we get it, we treat it differently. Am I avoiding an option out of fear or jealousy of someone or something outdoing me? Am I confusing the factor for selection with the result? Because we didn’t need it before. Verbal expression is the mirror of the mind. If you like something, you believe that the risks are smaller and the benefits greater than they actually are. If we can learn to recognize and evade the biggest errors in thinking—in our private lives, at work, or in government—we might experience a leap in prosperity. What are the objective upsides and downsides here? The psychologist Edward Lee Thorndike concluded that a single quality (e.g., beauty, social status, age) produces a positive or negative impression that outshines everything else, and the overall effect is disproportionate. In other words: We lack an intuitive grasp of probability. The failure to think clearly, or what experts call a “cognitive error” is a systematic deviation from logic—from optimal, rational, reasonable thought and behavior. I use Fathom Analytics for a privacy-friendlier internet. This affects everyone. What historical decisions do I have recorded that might indicate my prediction level? However, we have no sense of exponential growth. Therefore, if you have nothing to say, say nothing. A bad result does not automatically indicate a bad decision and vice versa. What predictions am I making about this? Am I overvaluing this option because of the novelty? Note: This book covers 99 common cognitive errors we’re facing in everyday life which I didn’t include them all in my reading notes. What are the limits of this piece of information? The technical term for this is the paradox of choice. And it leads to errors in decision making. Am I trying to fit a plausible story to the situation? Am I dealing with a subset here? Decision fatigue is perilous: As a consumer, you become more susceptible to advertising messages and impulse buys. The 10 Best Books for Better Decision Making, Continuous Improvement: A Simple Glance of What Lifelong Learning Really Means.